Canadian Oil Majors Forecast Higher Production in 2025 Amid Demand Optimism and Policy Uncertainty

Canadian oil giants Suncor, Cenovus, and Imperial Oil each released corporate guidance on December 12. The companies are taking a bullish stance on 2025, forecasting production increases despite looming policy and potential trade challenges.

Suncor outlines plans to boost production to between 810,000 and 845,000 barrels per day (BPD) while exercising disciplined capital expenditures.

Cenovus aims for capital investments of between $4.6 and $5.0 billion, along with crude output of between 805,000 and 850,000 BPD, while Imperial Oil is targeting a 3 per cent increase, with production projected between 433,000 and 456,000 BPD.

Analysts say these production targets reflect confidence in sustained global demand growth and the continued value of Canada’s energy infrastructure, including the Trans Mountain Expansion.

However, the sector faces uncertainty as Ottawa’s planned emissions cap looms, and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has proposed tariffs on all Canadian exports to the USA. Retaliatory trade measures by Canada, such as limiting energy exports, could also disrupt the market.

Despite these potential headwinds, the guidance signals an expectation that demand will remain strong in the near term, bolstered by global energy needs and steady investment in Canada’s oil sands.